UAL Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for United Airlines (UAL) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
United Airlines options trade on earnings and the summer travel season as key catalysts, much like DAL.
Over the last three months UAL has been moving at a moderate pace: 37.4% annualized realized volatility (25–45% band). Compare the chain's IV with this figure: IV well above realized means options are pricing more movement than recent trading shows; IV near or below it means they aren't.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: UAL Expected Move at $112.51
Using UAL's last quote of $112.51 (as of October 2, 2026), with UAL's own 3-month realized volatility of 37.4% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$12.06 (±10.7%)
$100.45 – $124.57
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$24.13
$88.38 – $136.64
7-day 1σ move
±$5.83
$106.68 – $118.34
$112.51 × 37.4% × √(30 / 365) = $12.06
- UAL sits 51% of the way from its 52-week low ($84.64) to its high ($138.77). The 30-day 1σ band spans 45% of the width of that 52-week range.
- UAL reports earnings on October 20, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare UAL Head-to-Head
Trading UAL Options & Expected Move
United Airlines' expected move profile is similar to DAL but with greater international-route exposure, which makes the stock more sensitive to currency moves and overseas travel-demand commentary. Earnings reactions have widened during periods of corporate-travel uncertainty. Options liquidity is good in monthlies and decent in weeklies. Traders often pair UAL against DAL to isolate international versus domestic exposure, or against LUV to express full-service versus low-cost views. Skew tilts to puts during fuel-price shocks. Labor-contract negotiations with pilots and flight attendants are recurring non-earnings catalysts. When pricing expected move, watch for TSA throughput data and major-airport disruption headlines, which have historically produced realized moves that exceeded the implied daily range during peak-travel windows.
Recent UAL Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.89 | $1.99 | Beat +5.03% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.08 | $1.19 | Beat +10.00% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.97 | $3.10 | Beat +4.52% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.66 | $2.78 | Beat +4.61% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for UAL
- Enter UAL's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for UAL.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for UAL?
- The expected move for UAL (United Airlines) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is UAL's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does UAL's implied volatility tell me?
- UAL's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on UAL?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.