CAT Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Caterpillar options reflect global infrastructure spending cycles. IV rises around earnings and on China economic data releases.
Options premiums are fairly priced. Expected moves align with historical norms. This is the most common regime for large-cap stocks.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading CAT Options & Expected Move
Caterpillar's expected move tracks global construction, mining, and infrastructure-spending cycles, so the implied range often understates the realized move when China stimulus or US infrastructure-bill commentary lands during the holding period. Dealer inventory levels and backlog growth are the swing factors at earnings. Options chains are liquid in monthlies. Traders use CAT as a cyclical bellwether and often pair it against DE, MMM, or industrial-sector ETFs. Skew leans to puts during recession worries. Commodity-price moves, particularly copper and iron ore, can produce sympathy moves that aren't captured by single-name implied volatility. When measuring expected move, factor in upcoming economic data releases like China PMI, which have historically driven multi-percent gaps on this stock.
Recent CAT Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.66 | $5.54 | Beat +18.84% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.72 | $5.16 | Beat +9.27% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.57 | $4.95 | Beat +8.35% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.95 | $4.72 | Miss -4.57% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for CAT
- Enter CAT's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for CAT.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for CAT?
- The expected move for CAT (Caterpillar Inc.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is CAT's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does CAT's implied volatility tell me?
- CAT's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on CAT?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.