BA Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Boeing Co. (BA) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Boeing options reflect ongoing delivery/safety issues and the stock's sensitivity to FAA regulatory actions.
Over the last three months BA has been moving at a moderate pace: 35.3% annualized realized volatility (25–45% band). Compare the chain's IV with this figure: IV well above realized means options are pricing more movement than recent trading shows; IV near or below it means they aren't.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: BA Expected Move at $192.28
Using BA's last quote of $192.28 (as of October 1, 2026), with BA's own 3-month realized volatility of 35.3% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$19.46 (±10.1%)
$172.82 – $211.74
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$38.92
$153.36 – $231.20
7-day 1σ move
±$9.40
$182.88 – $201.68
$192.28 × 35.3% × √(30 / 365) = $19.46
- BA sits 20% of the way from its 52-week low ($176.77) to its high ($254.35). The 30-day 1σ band spans 50% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches below the 52-week low of $176.77 — a tail move would put BA somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- BA reports earnings on October 27, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading BA Options & Expected Move
Boeing's expected move is wide and frequently exceeded because production-quality, regulatory, and safety headlines arrive outside of earnings windows. Free cash flow guidance and 737/787 delivery numbers are the swing items at quarterly prints. Options liquidity is solid in monthlies and active in weeklies given the stock's news-driven character. Traders often use defined-risk strategies here because IV remains structurally elevated and short premium has been punished repeatedly during crisis episodes. Skew typically tilts to puts. Beyond earnings, FAA announcements, machinist union negotiations, and major airline order books are recurring catalysts. When pricing the expected move, build in buffer for headline-driven gaps; Boeing's realized one-month volatility has repeatedly outpaced implied during operational stress periods.
Recent BA Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.31 | -$0.76 | Miss -142.12% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.86 | -$0.20 | Beat +76.71% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.40 | -$1.12 | Miss -179.09% |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.73 | -$7.47 | Miss -57.93% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for BA
- Enter BA's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for BA.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for BA?
- The expected move for BA (Boeing Co.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is BA's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does BA's implied volatility tell me?
- BA's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on BA?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.