SOFI Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for SoFi Technologies (SOFI) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
SoFi options reflect growth-stage fintech risk, with large moves around earnings and membership data.
Over the last three months SOFI has been volatile: 52.4% annualized realized volatility (45–70% band). At comparable IV, expected moves are wide — strikes that look far out-of-the-money are closer in standard-deviation terms than they appear.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: SOFI Expected Move at $15.77
Using SOFI's last quote of $15.77 (as of October 2, 2026), with SOFI's own 3-month realized volatility of 52.4% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$2.37 (±15.0%)
$13.40 – $18.14
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$4.74
$11.03 – $20.51
7-day 1σ move
±$1.14
$14.63 – $16.91
$15.77 × 52.4% × √(30 / 365) = $2.37
- SOFI sits 5% of the way from its 52-week low ($14.88) to its high ($32.73). The 30-day 1σ band spans 27% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches below the 52-week low of $14.88 — a tail move would put SOFI somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- SOFI reports earnings on October 27, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading SOFI Options & Expected Move
SoFi's expected move into earnings reflects growth-stage fintech dynamics, with member growth, lending volumes, and tech-platform fee income as the swing factors. Charter-related regulatory commentary occasionally produces non-earnings moves. Options liquidity is good in monthlies with active weeklies given the retail-heavy ownership base. The low share price keeps individual contract premiums modest, which favors outright premium buying for directional views. Skew shifts based on the credit cycle and student-loan policy developments. Traders often pair SoFi against UPST or against KRE to express fintech-versus-traditional-banking views. When pricing expected move, factor in any pending Fed announcements; SoFi's lending model is rate-sensitive and the stock has historically produced multi-percent moves on FOMC days that exceeded the prior week's implied range.
Recent SOFI Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.11 | $0.12 | Beat +6.86% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.12 | $0.12 | Miss -1.15% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12 | $0.13 | Beat +9.70% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08 | $0.11 | Beat +32.53% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for SOFI
- Enter SOFI's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for SOFI.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for SOFI?
- The expected move for SOFI (SoFi Technologies) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is SOFI's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does SOFI's implied volatility tell me?
- SOFI's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on SOFI?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.