JPM Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for JPMorgan Chase (JPM) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
JPM is a diversified financial. IV rises into earnings and during banking sector stress events.
Over the last three months JPM has been on the calmer end for individual stocks: 19.0% annualized realized volatility (under 25% band). Quiet stretches keep expected moves narrow. If the option chain's IV sits well above this, the market is pricing in more movement than the stock has lately delivered — often ahead of a catalyst.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: JPM Expected Move at $332.38
Using JPM's last quote of $332.38 (as of October 2, 2026), with JPM's own 3-month realized volatility of 19.0% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$18.11 (±5.4%)
$314.27 – $350.49
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$36.21
$296.17 – $368.59
7-day 1σ move
±$8.75
$323.63 – $341.13
$332.38 × 19.0% × √(30 / 365) = $18.11
- JPM sits 61% of the way from its 52-week low ($279.10) to its high ($366.50). The 30-day 1σ band spans 41% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches above the 52-week high of $366.50 — a tail move would put JPM somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- JPM reports earnings on October 13, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare JPM Head-to-Head
Trading JPM Options & Expected Move
JPMorgan's expected move into earnings is usually compressed because the bank's diversified revenue mix smooths quarterly results, but Jamie Dimon's commentary on credit, rates, and the macro can drive multi-day drifts that exceed the implied one-day range. Options liquidity is excellent for a financial, with deep monthly chains and active weeklies. Traders often use JPM as a relative-value pair against XLF or against weaker regional banks. Skew tilts to puts during credit cycle worries and flattens during rate-cut narratives. Watch CCAR results, dividend hikes, and buyback authorizations as non-earnings catalysts. When pricing expected move, remember that JPM's beta to rates is meaningful, so an FOMC week can dominate single-name fundamentals.
Recent JPM Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $5.91 | $6.14 | Beat +3.96% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.50 | $5.94 | Beat +7.95% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.05 | $5.23 | Beat +3.48% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.88 | $5.07 | Beat +3.81% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for JPM
- Enter JPM's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for JPM.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for JPM?
- The expected move for JPM (JPMorgan Chase) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is JPM's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does JPM's implied volatility tell me?
- JPM's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on JPM?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.