COIN Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Coinbase Global (COIN) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Coinbase options track crypto market volatility. Bitcoin price moves are the dominant driver of expected ranges.
Over the last three months COIN has been extremely volatile: 76.2% annualized realized volatility (70% or more band). At volatility like this a one-month 1σ range can span a large share of the stock price, and moves beyond the expected range are common enough to plan for.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: COIN Expected Move at $183.00
Using COIN's last quote of $183.00 (as of October 2, 2026), with COIN's own 3-month realized volatility of 76.2% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$39.98 (±21.8%)
$143.02 – $222.98
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$79.96
$103.04 – $262.96
7-day 1σ move
±$19.31
$163.69 – $202.31
$183.00 × 76.2% × √(30 / 365) = $39.98
- COIN sits 17% of the way from its 52-week low ($139.11) to its high ($402.16). The 30-day 1σ band spans 30% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches below the 52-week low of $139.11 — a tail move would put COIN somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- COIN reports earnings on October 29, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare COIN Head-to-Head
Trading COIN Options & Expected Move
Coinbase's expected move is dominated by Bitcoin and ether price action between earnings reports, often making the quarterly print less impactful than the prevailing crypto regime. Transaction revenue, custody growth, and stablecoin-related income are the segment-level swing factors. Options chains are deep in monthlies and very active in weeklies. Traders use COIN as a leveraged crypto proxy and frequently pair it against IBIT, MSTR, or directly against BTC futures. Skew shifts wildly between calls and puts on crypto-cycle turns. Regulatory headlines around SEC enforcement and stablecoin legislation are recurring non-earnings catalysts. When pricing expected move, overlay crypto market volatility metrics; COIN's realized move has frequently outpaced single-stock implied during major BTC drawdowns or rallies.
Recent COIN Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.17 | -$1.17 | Miss -574.35% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.32 | -$1.49 | Miss -559.73% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.59 | -$2.49 | Miss -519.83% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.08 | $1.50 | Beat +39.07% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for COIN
- Enter COIN's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for COIN.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for COIN?
- The expected move for COIN (Coinbase Global) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is COIN's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does COIN's implied volatility tell me?
- COIN's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on COIN?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.