SLV Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for iShares Silver Trust (SLV) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
SLV reflects silver's dual industrial/precious metal demand and a thinner market than gold.
Over the last three months SLV has been moving at a moderate pace: 38.7% annualized realized volatility (25–45% band). Compare the chain's IV with this figure: IV well above realized means options are pricing more movement than recent trading shows; IV near or below it means they aren't.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: SLV Expected Move at $54.74
Using SLV's last quote of $54.74 (as of October 2, 2026), with SLV's own 3-month realized volatility of 38.7% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$6.07 (±11.1%)
$48.67 – $60.81
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$12.15
$42.59 – $66.89
7-day 1σ move
±$2.93
$51.81 – $57.67
$54.74 × 38.7% × √(30 / 365) = $6.07
- SLV sits 19% of the way from its 52-week low ($41.66) to its high ($109.83). The 30-day 1σ band spans 18% of the width of that 52-week range.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare SLV Head-to-Head
Trading SLV Options & Expected Move
SLV's expected move runs meaningfully wider than GLD because silver's smaller market and dual industrial-precious demand profile produce sharper moves in both directions. Solar-panel demand and electronics-industry consumption are unique drivers that don't apply to gold. Options liquidity is reasonable in monthlies but thins quickly on the wings; weeklies can have wider spreads than GLD. Traders often use SLV as a leveraged gold proxy or to express industrial-demand views. Skew is generally balanced but can tilt to calls during squeeze episodes; the 2021 retail-driven move remains a reference point. When pricing expected move, factor in copper and base-metal correlations alongside the precious-metal complex, as silver often tracks both during volatile macro regimes.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for SLV
- Enter SLV's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for SLV.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for SLV?
- The expected move for SLV (iShares Silver Trust) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is SLV's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does SLV's implied volatility tell me?
- SLV's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on SLV?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.