NFLX Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Netflix Inc. (NFLX) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Netflix has one of the largest expected moves around earnings among mega-caps, making it a popular straddle and strangle target.
Over the last three months NFLX has been moving at a moderate pace: 36.6% annualized realized volatility (25–45% band). Compare the chain's IV with this figure: IV well above realized means options are pricing more movement than recent trading shows; IV near or below it means they aren't.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: NFLX Expected Move at $67.06
Using NFLX's last quote of $67.06 (as of October 2, 2026), with NFLX's own 3-month realized volatility of 36.6% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$7.04 (±10.5%)
$60.02 – $74.10
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$14.07
$52.99 – $81.13
7-day 1σ move
±$3.40
$63.66 – $70.46
$67.06 × 36.6% × √(30 / 365) = $7.04
- NFLX sits 3% of the way from its 52-week low ($65.08) to its high ($124.86). The 30-day 1σ band spans 24% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches below the 52-week low of $65.08 — a tail move would put NFLX somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- NFLX reports earnings on October 20, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare NFLX Head-to-Head
Trading NFLX Options & Expected Move
Netflix is one of the great straddle stocks because subscriber surprises in either direction routinely produce double-digit moves, and the expected move has historically been violated on a meaningful fraction of prints. Password sharing crackdowns, ad-tier ramp, and content slate commentary are the swing factors. Options chains are deep, with weekly expirations seeing aggressive retail flow into earnings. Skew can flip rapidly between calls and puts depending on the most recent subscriber print. Traders favor long straddles or wide-wing iron condors on this name precisely because mean-reversion strategies have repeatedly been stopped out. When using the expected move, treat it as a lower bound and consider hedging tail risk with cheap wings beyond the implied range.
Recent NFLX Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.80 | $0.80 | Miss -0.52% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.78 | $0.70 | Miss -10.15% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.56 | $0.56 | Miss -0.50% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.71 | $0.59 | Miss -17.39% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for NFLX
- Enter NFLX's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for NFLX.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for NFLX?
- The expected move for NFLX (Netflix Inc.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is NFLX's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does NFLX's implied volatility tell me?
- NFLX's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on NFLX?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.