XOM Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Exxon options reflect crude oil and natural gas price dynamics. IV rises with geopolitical tensions and OPEC decisions.
Options premiums are fairly priced. Expected moves align with historical norms. This is the most common regime for large-cap stocks.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading XOM Options & Expected Move
Exxon Mobil's expected move correlates tightly with crude oil and natural gas price action between earnings reports, so the implied range at quarter-end often understates the realized monthly move when commodity prices trend. Production guidance, Permian growth commentary, and capital-return updates are the swing factors at the print. Options liquidity is strong in monthlies. Traders frequently pair XOM with CVX for relative-value trades or hedge with USO or sector ETFs. OPEC+ meetings and major geopolitical events are recurring non-earnings catalysts. Skew is generally balanced but can tilt to puts during demand-destruction worries. When using the expected move, overlay any pending OPEC announcements or hurricane-season disruptions that could amplify the realized range beyond what one-day implied volatility suggests.
Recent XOM Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.01 | $1.16 | Beat +14.29% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | $1.71 | Beat +0.49% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.84 | $1.88 | Beat +2.44% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.56 | $1.64 | Beat +5.13% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for XOM
- Enter XOM's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for XOM.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for XOM?
- The expected move for XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is XOM's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does XOM's implied volatility tell me?
- XOM's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on XOM?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.