AMZN Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Amazon options are actively traded. AWS growth, e-commerce margins, and Prime Day events drive volatility spikes.
Over the last three months AMZN has been moving at a moderate pace: 40.5% annualized realized volatility (25–45% band). Compare the chain's IV with this figure: IV well above realized means options are pricing more movement than recent trading shows; IV near or below it means they aren't.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: AMZN Expected Move at $251.52
Using AMZN's last quote of $251.52 (as of October 2, 2026), with AMZN's own 3-month realized volatility of 40.5% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$29.20 (±11.6%)
$222.32 – $280.72
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$58.41
$193.11 – $309.93
7-day 1σ move
±$14.11
$237.41 – $265.63
$251.52 × 40.5% × √(30 / 365) = $29.20
- AMZN sits 61% of the way from its 52-week low ($196.00) to its high ($287.20). The 30-day 1σ band spans 64% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches past both ends of the 52-week range — a tail move would put AMZN somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- AMZN reports earnings on October 29, 2026, inside this 30-day window. Real IV for this expiration includes an earnings premium, so the market's expected move is likely wider than this example.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading AMZN Options & Expected Move
Amazon's expected moves around earnings are notoriously hard to handicap because retail margins, AWS growth, and forward guidance often pull the stock in opposite directions before settling. The options market is one of the most liquid in the world, with sub-penny spreads on near-the-money weekly contracts. Traders frequently structure broken-wing butterflies and ratio spreads to express directional views without paying full straddle premium. Prime Day, Black Friday, and AWS re:Invent are secondary IV events worth marking on the calendar. When measuring expected move, remember that AMZN tends to have asymmetric tails on the downside during capex-heavy quarters, so the implied range may understate left-tail risk if cloud growth disappoints.
Recent AMZN Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.86 | $1.97 | Beat +6.13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.67 | $1.61 | Miss -3.47% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.67 | $1.61 | Miss -3.61% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.60 | $1.95 | Beat +21.50% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for AMZN
- Enter AMZN's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for AMZN.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for AMZN?
- The expected move for AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is AMZN's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does AMZN's implied volatility tell me?
- AMZN's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on AMZN?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.