WMT Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Walmart Inc. (WMT) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Walmart options have low IV as a defensive consumer staple. Earnings and same-store sales data are the primary volatility drivers.
Options premiums are relatively cheap, and expected moves tend to be small. This makes it a cost-effective time to buy options if you expect a catalyst.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading WMT Options & Expected Move
Walmart's expected move into earnings is typically small in percentage terms, but the dollar move can still be meaningful given the share price after splits and the stock's status as a consumer bellwether. Same-store sales, e-commerce growth, and grocery-margin commentary drive the print. Options liquidity is good in monthlies but lighter in weeklies than tech peers. Traders often use WMT as a defensive consumer-staples premium-selling vehicle. Skew is generally balanced. Beyond earnings, monthly retail sales data and back-to-school commentary can produce modest drifts. The stock has historically performed well during recessionary worries, so put skew can flatten during risk-off episodes. Treat the implied move as a reasonable but slightly conservative estimate of realized range.
Recent WMT Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | $0.73 | $0.74 | Beat +0.90% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.61 | $0.62 | Beat +2.18% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.75 | $0.68 | Miss -9.16% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58 | $0.61 | Beat +4.88% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for WMT
- Enter WMT's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for WMT.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for WMT?
- The expected move for WMT (Walmart Inc.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is WMT's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does WMT's implied volatility tell me?
- WMT's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on WMT?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.