UNH Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for UnitedHealth Group (UNH) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
UNH options have low baseline IV. Regulatory changes to Medicare/Medicaid and healthcare policy shifts drive periodic IV expansion.
Options premiums are relatively cheap, and expected moves tend to be small. This makes it a cost-effective time to buy options if you expect a catalyst.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading UNH Options & Expected Move
UnitedHealth's expected move can compress and then expand sharply around healthcare policy headlines, particularly Medicare Advantage reimbursement rate announcements that fall outside the normal earnings cycle. The stock's high dollar price means options premiums are large in absolute terms, favoring spread structures. Liquidity is strong in monthlies. Medical loss ratio commentary and Optum segment growth are the swing factors at earnings. Traders use UNH as a managed-care benchmark, often pairing trades against HUM, CI, or ELV. Skew leans to puts during regulatory uncertainty periods. When sizing trades, account for the fact that mid-year rate notices and final-rule announcements have repeatedly produced multi-percent gaps that weren't priced into the prior week's implied move.
Recent UNH Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $6.64 | $7.23 | Beat +8.88% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.12 | $2.11 | Miss -0.57% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.82 | $2.92 | Beat +3.48% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.53 | $4.08 | Miss -9.92% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for UNH
- Enter UNH's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for UNH.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for UNH?
- The expected move for UNH (UnitedHealth Group) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is UNH's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does UNH's implied volatility tell me?
- UNH's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on UNH?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.