MRNA Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Moderna Inc. (MRNA) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Moderna options carry very high IV driven by vaccine pipeline data readouts and revenue cliff uncertainty.
Options premiums are very expensive. The market is pricing in a major move. Buying options is costly, but selling carries significant risk if the move exceeds expectations.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading MRNA Options & Expected Move
Moderna's expected move is wide in percentage terms because the post-COVID revenue trajectory remains uncertain and pipeline catalysts produce binary outcomes. Phase III data readouts for non-COVID vaccines, regulatory submissions, and partnership announcements have historically produced double-digit moves outside of earnings. Options liquidity is reasonable on near-the-money weeklies but thins quickly. Skew can be extreme depending on the most recent pipeline news cycle. Traders often use defined-risk strategies like vertical spreads here because outright straddles can be expensive given the high IV baseline. Watch ACIP recommendation meetings and CDC season-prep announcements as secondary catalysts. The realized move on Moderna has both exceeded and fallen short of implied, depending on whether pipeline news lands during the holding period.
Recent MRNA Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -$4.04 | -$3.40 | Beat +15.85% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.70 | -$2.11 | Beat +21.72% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.15 | -$0.51 | Beat +76.27% |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.03 | -$2.13 | Beat +29.60% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for MRNA
- Enter MRNA's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for MRNA.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for MRNA?
- The expected move for MRNA (Moderna Inc.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is MRNA's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does MRNA's implied volatility tell me?
- MRNA's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on MRNA?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.