TGT Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Target Corp. (TGT) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Target options see IV expansion into earnings driven by same-store sales data, inventory management, and consumer spending trends.
Over the last three months TGT has been moving at a moderate pace: 28.3% annualized realized volatility (25–45% band). Compare the chain's IV with this figure: IV well above realized means options are pricing more movement than recent trading shows; IV near or below it means they aren't.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: TGT Expected Move at $156.00
Using TGT's last quote of $156.00 (as of October 2, 2026), with TGT's own 3-month realized volatility of 28.3% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$12.66 (±8.1%)
$143.34 – $168.66
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$25.31
$130.69 – $181.31
7-day 1σ move
±$6.11
$149.89 – $162.11
$156.00 × 28.3% × √(30 / 365) = $12.66
- TGT sits 83% of the way from its 52-week low ($83.44) to its high ($170.75). The 30-day 1σ band spans 29% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches above the 52-week high of $170.75 — a tail move would put TGT somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- TGT's next earnings (November 18, 2026) fall after this 30-day window, so an expiration this long isn't carrying an earnings premium yet.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare TGT Head-to-Head
Trading TGT Options & Expected Move
Target's expected move into earnings has been more volatile than Walmart's in recent years because inventory shrinkage, discretionary-mix exposure, and traffic trends have produced sharper surprises. Comparable-store sales and digital growth are the segment-level swing factors. Options liquidity is good in monthlies and reasonable in weeklies. Traders often pair TGT against WMT to express discretionary-versus-staples views within consumer retail. Skew tilts to puts during periods of margin pressure. Holiday-period guidance and back-to-school commentary are recurring catalysts beyond earnings. When pricing expected move, factor in monthly consumer-spending data and credit-card-delinquency releases, both of which have historically produced sympathy moves in Target on days when the broader consumer tape repriced.
Recent TGT Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2027 | $2.35 | $2.46 | Beat +4.53% |
| Q1 2027 | $1.48 | $1.71 | Beat +15.78% |
| Q4 2026 | $2.18 | $2.44 | Beat +12.08% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.74 | $1.78 | Beat +2.55% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for TGT
- Enter TGT's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for TGT.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for TGT?
- The expected move for TGT (Target Corp.) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is TGT's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does TGT's implied volatility tell me?
- TGT's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on TGT?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.