PLTR Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Palantir options reflect government contract uncertainty and the stock's retail-driven momentum dynamics.
Over the last three months PLTR has been extremely volatile: 75.7% annualized realized volatility (70% or more band). At volatility like this a one-month 1σ range can span a large share of the stock price, and moves beyond the expected range are common enough to plan for.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: PLTR Expected Move at $188.75
Using PLTR's last quote of $188.75 (as of October 2, 2026), with PLTR's own 3-month realized volatility of 75.7% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$40.96 (±21.7%)
$147.79 – $229.71
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$81.93
$106.82 – $270.68
7-day 1σ move
±$19.79
$168.96 – $208.54
$188.75 × 75.7% × √(30 / 365) = $40.96
- PLTR sits 81% of the way from its 52-week low ($106.37) to its high ($207.52). The 30-day 1σ band spans 81% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches above the 52-week high of $207.52 — a tail move would put PLTR somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Trading PLTR Options & Expected Move
Palantir's expected move profile blends government-contract uncertainty with retail-driven momentum dynamics that produce sharper moves than typical mid-cap software names. AIP commercial traction and US government segment growth are the swing factors at earnings. Options liquidity has grown substantially with index inclusion, particularly in weeklies. Traders often use defined-risk call structures here given the stock's tendency for sharp upside gaps and equally sharp give-back episodes. Skew can flip rapidly between calls and puts depending on retail positioning. Major contract announcements with the Army or NHS are recurring non-earnings catalysts that have produced multi-percent moves. When pricing expected move, factor in the stock's elevated correlation with social-sentiment cycles, which can amplify realized moves beyond implied.
Recent PLTR Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.35 | $0.41 | Beat +15.69% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | $0.33 | Beat +15.83% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.23 | $0.25 | Beat +6.47% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.17 | $0.21 | Beat +22.24% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for PLTR
- Enter PLTR's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for PLTR.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for PLTR?
- The expected move for PLTR (Palantir Technologies) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is PLTR's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does PLTR's implied volatility tell me?
- PLTR's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on PLTR?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.