MARA Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the expected price range for Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) based on implied volatility and time to expiration.
Marathon Digital options closely track Bitcoin price movements. Crypto market conditions dominate expected ranges.
Over the last three months MARA has been extremely volatile: 94.1% annualized realized volatility (70% or more band). At volatility like this a one-month 1σ range can span a large share of the stock price, and moves beyond the expected range are common enough to plan for.
Quote refreshes every 6h. Use as context — not a real-time price.
IV typically expands into earnings and crushes on the report. Plan your position size and expiration accordingly.
Enter stock price, implied volatility, and days to expiration, then click Calculate expected move to see the expected price range.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Read full disclaimer
Worked Example: MARA Expected Move at $11.23
Using MARA's last quote of $11.23 (as of October 2, 2026), with MARA's own 3-month realized volatility of 94.1% standing in for IV. Implied volatility usually runs above realized — especially before earnings — so enter the at-the-money IV from your option chain for the market's number.
30-day 1σ move (~68%)
±$3.03 (±27.0%)
$8.20 – $14.26
30-day 2σ range (~95%)
±$6.06
$5.17 – $17.29
7-day 1σ move
±$1.46
$9.77 – $12.69
$11.23 × 94.1% × √(30 / 365) = $3.03
- MARA sits 27% of the way from its 52-week low ($6.66) to its high ($23.45). The 30-day 1σ band spans 36% of the width of that 52-week range.
- At this volatility, the 2σ band reaches below the 52-week low of $6.66 — a tail move would put MARA somewhere it hasn't traded all year.
- MARA's next earnings (November 2, 2026) fall after this 30-day window, so an expiration this long isn't carrying an earnings premium yet.
Expected Move for Similar Tickers
Compare MARA Head-to-Head
Trading MARA Options & Expected Move
Marathon Digital's expected move tracks Bitcoin price action almost more than its own quarterly fundamentals, making BTC volatility the dominant input alongside hashrate-growth commentary and energy-cost dynamics. Halving cycles are a unique multi-year catalyst that miners share. Options liquidity is good in monthlies and active in weeklies given the retail base. Traders use MARA as a leveraged BTC proxy and often pair it against RIOT or directly against IBIT for relative-value views. Skew can shift sharply on crypto-cycle turns. Equipment-acquisition and capital-raise announcements have historically produced non-earnings gaps. When pricing expected move, overlay current BTC implied volatility; MARA's realized move has frequently been a multiple of BTC's own range during stressed periods of the crypto cycle.
Recent MARA Earnings History
Last 4 quarters of EPS estimate vs actual.
| Quarter | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.19 | -$1.57 | Miss -916.01% |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.20 | -$3.31 | Miss -50.71% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.13 | -$4.52 | Miss -3425.74% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.45 | $0.31 | Miss -31.51% |
EPS values from Finnhub. Refreshes daily.
Expected Move Formula
Expected Move = Price × IV × √(DTE / 365)
1σ Range: Price ± Expected Move (≈68% probability)
2σ Range: Price ± 2 × Expected Move (≈95% probability)
How to Use This Calculator for MARA
- Enter MARA's current stock price — check your broker or a financial data site for the latest quote.
- Enter the implied volatility — use the at-the-money IV for the expiration you're targeting. Your broker's option chain will show this.
- Enter days to expiration — the number of calendar days until the options expire.
- Click Calculate — see the 1σ and 2σ expected ranges for MARA.
- Apply to your trade — use the ranges to select strikes, evaluate iron condors, or decide if options premiums are fairly priced.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected move for MARA?
- The expected move for MARA (Marathon Digital Holdings) is the price range the market expects the stock to stay within over a given period, based on its current implied volatility. Enter the stock price, IV, and days to expiration above to calculate it.
- How is MARA's expected move calculated?
- Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(DTE / 365). The 1 standard deviation range covers approximately 68% probability, and the 2 standard deviation range covers approximately 95%.
- What does MARA's implied volatility tell me?
- MARA's IV reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock will move. Higher IV means options are more expensive and the expected range is wider. IV often rises before earnings and falls after (vol crush).
- Should I buy or sell options on MARA?
- That depends on whether IV is elevated or depressed relative to historical levels. When IV is high, selling strategies (covered calls, iron condors) can be more profitable. When IV is low, buying options is cheaper. This calculator helps you understand the expected range before deciding.
- How accurate is the expected move?
- The expected move is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee. Historically, stocks stay within the 1σ expected range about 68% of the time and within the 2σ range about 95% of the time. Earnings announcements, news events, and market crashes can cause moves well beyond the expected range.